Off-label prescribing in pregnancy - A case of risky business or business as usual?

Editorial. Published:January 14, 2015.Luke E. Grzeskowiak, Ben W. Mo

Management of intrahepatic cholestasis in pregnancy

CommentAbstract not availableKirsten R Palmer, Liu Xiaohua, Ben W Mo

Vissen bij wisselend tij : een notitie over de (cumulatieve) sociaaleconomische effecten van ontwikkelingen die invloed hebben op de Nederlandse kottervisserij

Naar aanleiding van het rapport ‘Wind op zee’ (Mol et al. 2019) is de vraag gesteld of en hoe de huidige ontwikkelingen, waar de visserijsector mee te maken heeft (Brexit, aanlandplicht en het intrekken van de pulsontheffingen), invloed hebben op de economische waarde voor de visserij in de windparkgebieden en hoe deze ontwikkelingen elkaar beïnvloeden. In deze notitie worden deze interacties kwalitatief omschreven. Daarnaast worden aanbevelingen gedaan om tot een kwantitatieve berekening van de economische gevolgen te komen door middel van het bepalen van scenario’s en het bouwen van een model

Cost-effectiveness of medically assisted reproduction or expectant management for unexplained subfertility: when to start treatment?

STUDY QUESTION Over a time period of 3 years, which order of expectant management (EM), IUI with ovarian stimulation (IUI-OS) and IVF is the most cost-effective for couples with unexplained subfertility with the female age below 38 years? SUMMARY ANSWER If a live birth is considered worth €32 000 or less, 2 years of EM followed by IVF was the most cost-effective, whereas above €32 000 this was 1 year of EM, 1 year of IUI-OS and then 1 year of IVF. WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY IUI-OS and IVF are commonly used fertility treatments for unexplained subfertility although many couples can conceive naturally, as no identifiable barrier to conception could be found by definition. Few countries have guidelines on when to proceed with medically assisted reproduction (MAR), mostly based on the expected probability of live birth after treatment, but there is a lack of evidence to support the strategies proposed by these guidelines. The increased uptake of IUI-OS and IVF over the past decades and costs related to reimbursement of these treatments are pressing concerns to health service providers. For MAR to remain affordable, sustainable and a responsible use of public funds, guidance is needed on the cost-effectiveness of treatment strategies for unexplained subfertility, including EM. STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION We developed a decision analytic Markov model that follows couples with unexplained subfertility of which the woman is under 38 years of age for a time period of 3 years from completion of the fertility workup onwards. We divided the time axis of 3 years into three separate periods, each comprising 1 year. The model was based on contemporary evidence, most notably the dynamic prediction model for natural conception, which was combined with MAR treatment effects from a network meta-analysis on randomized controlled trials. We changed the order of options for managing unexplained subfertility for the 1 year periods to yield five different treatment policies in total: IVF-EM-EM (immediate IVF), EM-IVF-EM (delayed IVF), EM-EM-IVF (postponed IVF), IUIOS-IVF-EM (immediate IUI-OS) and EM-IUIOS-IVF (delayed IUI-OS). PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS The main outcomes per policy over the 3-year period were the probability of live birth, the average treatment and delivery costs, the probability of multiple pregnancy, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) and finally, which policy yields the highest net benefit in which costs for a policy were deducted from the health effects, i.e. live births gained. We chose the Dutch societal perspective, but the model can be easily modified for other locations or other perspectives. The probability of live birth after EM was taken from the dynamic prediction model for natural conception and updated for Years 2 and 3. The relative effects of IUI-OS and IVF in terms of odds ratios, taken from the network meta-analysis, were applied to the probability of live birth after EM. We applied standard discounting procedures for economic analyses for Years 2 and 3. The uncertainty around effectiveness, costs and other parameters was assessed by probabilistic sensitivity analysis in which we drew values from distributions and repeated this procedure 20 000 times. In addition, we changed model assumptions to assess their influence on our results. MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE From IVF-EM-EM to EM-IUIOS-IVF, the probability of live birth varied from approximately 54–64% and the average costs from approximately €4000 to €9000. The policies IVF-EM-EM and EM-IVF-EM were dominated by EM-EM-IVF as the latter yielded a higher cumulative probability of live birth at a lower cost. The policy IUIOS-IVF-EM was dominated by EM-IUIOS-IVF as the latter yielded a higher cumulative probability of live birth at a lower cost. After removal of policies that were dominated, the ICER for EM-IUIOS-IVF was approximately €31 000 compared to EM-EM-IVF. The range of ICER values between the lowest 25% and highest 75% of simulation replications was broad. The net benefit curve showed that when we assume a live birth to be worth approximately €20 000 or less, the policy EM-EM-IVF had the highest probability to achieve the highest net benefit. Between €20 000 and €50 000 monetary value per live birth, it was uncertain whether EM-EM-IVF was better than EM-IUIOS-IVF, with the turning point of €32 000. When we assume a monetary value per live birth over €50 000, the policy with the highest probability to achieve the highest net benefit was EM-IUIOS-IVF. Results for subgroups with different baseline prognoses showed the same policies dominated and the same two policies that were the most likely to achieve the highest net benefit but at different threshold values for the assumed monetary value per live birth. LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION Our model focused on population level and was thus based on average costs for the average number of cycles conducted. We also based the model on a number of key assumptions. We changed model assumptions to assess the influence of these assumptions on our results. The change in relative effectiveness of IVF over time was found to be highly influential on results and their interpretation. WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS EM-EM-IVF and EM-IUIOS-IVF followed by IVF were the most cost-effective policies. The choice depends on the monetary value assigned to a live birth. The results of our study can be used in discussions between clinicians, couples and policy makers to decide on a sustainable treatment protocol based on the probability of live birth, the costs and the limitations of MAR treatment. STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTEREST(S) This work was supported by the ZonMw Doelmatigheidsonderzoek (80-85200-98-91072). The funder had no role in the design, conduct or reporting of this work. B.W.M. is supported by a NHMRC Practitioner Fellowship (GNT1082548). B.W.M. reports consultancy for ObsEva, Merck KGaA and Guerbet and travel and research support from ObsEva, Merck and Guerbet. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER N/A.R van Eekelen, M J Eijkemans, M Mochtar, F Mol, B W Mol, H Groen, M van Wel

Learning from failure

We study decentralized learning in organizations. Decentralization is captured through a symmetry constraint on agents’ strategies. Among such attainable strategies, we solve for optimal and equilibrium strategies. We model the organization as a repeated game with imperfectly observable actions. A fixed but unknown subset of action profiles are successes and all other action profiles are failures. The game is played until either there is a success or the time horizon is reached. For any time horizon, including infinity, we demonstrate existence of optimal attainable strategies and show that they are Nash equilibria. For some time horizons, we can solve explicitly for the optimal attainable strategies and show uniqueness. The solution connects the learning behavior of agents to the fundamentals that characterize the organization: Agents in the organization respond more slowly to failure as the future becomes more important, the size of the organization increases and the probability of success decreases.Game theory

Regional differences in severe postpartum hemorrhage: A nationwide comparative study of 1.6 million deliveries

Background: The incidence of severe postpartum hemorrhage (PPH) is increasing. Regional variation may be attributed to variation in provision of care, and as such contribute to this increasing incidence. We assessed reasons for regional variation in severe PPH in the Netherlands. Methods: We used the Netherlands Perinatal Registry and the Dutch Maternal Mortality Committee to study severe PPH incidences (defined as blood loss ≥ 1000 mL) across both regions and neighborhoods of cities among all deliveries between 2000 and 2008. We first calculated crude incidences. We then used logistic multilevel regression analyses, with hospital or midwife practice as second level to explore further reasons for the regional variation. Results: We analyzed 1599867 deliveries in which the incidence of severe PPH was 4.5%. Crude incidences of severe PPH varied with factor three between regions while between neighborhoods variation was even larger. We could not explain regional variation by maternal characteristics (age, parity, ethnicity, socioeconomic status), pregnancy characteristics (singleton, gestational age, birth weight, pre-eclampsia, perinatal death), medical interventions (induction of labor, mode of delivery, perineal laceration, placental removal) and health care setting. Conclusions: In a nationwide study in The Netherlands, we observed wide practice variation in PPH. This variation could not be explained by maternal characteristics, pregnancy characteristics, medical interventions or health care setting. Regional variation is either unavoidable or subsequent to regional variation of a yet unregistered variable

A double blind, randomised, placebo-controlled trial to evaluate the efficacy of metformin to treat preterm pre-eclampsia (PI2 Trial): study protocol

INTRODUCTION:Pre-eclampsia is a major complication of pregnancy, globally responsible for 60 000 maternal deaths per year, and far more fetal losses. There is no definitive treatment other than delivery. A therapeutic that could quench the disease process would be useful to treat preterm pre-eclampsia, as it could allow these pregnancies to safely continue to a gestation where fetal outcomes are significantly improved. We have published preclinical data to show that metformin, a drug known to be safe in pregnancy and commonly used to treat gestational diabetes, has potent biological effects making it another promising candidate to treat pre-eclampsia. Here, we describe a phase II clinical trial to examine whether administering extended-release metformin may be effective in treating women with preterm pre-eclampsia (PI2 Trial). METHODS:The PI2 Trial is a phase II, double blind, randomised controlled trial that aims to recruit 150 women with preterm pre-eclampsia (gestational age 26+0 to 31+6 weeks) who are being managed expectantly. Participants will be randomised to receive either 3 g of metformin or placebo daily. The primary outcome is time from randomisation until delivery. A delay in delivery of 5 days is assumed to be clinically relevant. The secondary outcomes will be a maternal composite and neonatal composite outcome. All other outcomes will be exploratory. We will record adverse events. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION:This study has ethical approval (Protocol number M16/09/037 Federal Wide Assurance Number 00001372, Institutional Review Board Number IRB0005239), is registered with the Pan African Clinical Trial Registry (PACTR201608001752102) and the South African Medicine Control Council (20170322). Data will be presented at international conferences and published in peer-reviewed journals. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER:PACTR201608001752102; Pre-results.Catherine Cluver, Susan P Walker, Ben W Mol, David Hall, Richard Hiscock, Fiona C Brownfoot, Tu’uhevaha J Kaitu’u-Lino, Stephen Ton